Most people who haven’t already “made it” are lucky to have a few people who truly have rock-solid, investible faith in them. Maybe their parents (if they’re lucky!) Maybe a few really close friends, or a mentor they’ve been lucky to find.
But in a typical lifespan–before you’ve “made it,” however you define that– the main person who is going to have faith in you is you.
That means, before you’ve reached the level of success you desire in life, investing in yourself is a form of contrarian investing. (Investing that goes against the crowd.) And a form that I think is much more doable, valuable, and safe than contrarian investing in the markets.
(Which, as we’ve seen from my last email “The Dirty Secret of the BS Investment Industry,” is by definition the only way to get “above average” returns in the markets. As I wrote about, contrarian investing, which even includes “buy and hold,” requires you to have confidence in the markets, even when they’re crashing, which is really, really hard to do.)
I believe that if you’re going to do contrarian investing… if you’re going to go against the crowd…
If you’re going to try to be “better than average” at some skill… if you’re going to develop confidence in something (which is hard)…
Develop confidence in something that’s about *you*, not the markets.
Develop a skill that’s about something you care about. About something you can influence much more easily.
Be contrarian about yourself.
When you have “confidence” in the ultimate rise of the markets (however founded or unfounded that is)… you’re having confidence in something entirely external to yourself.
Which means, your confidence has virtually no impact on that thing.
Whereas, when you develop confidence in yourself, and your own success, that confidence actually has a causal effect.
Confidence in yourself can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Your positive prophecy about yourself and your ultimate success can shift things within you–and within the way people perceive you–enough to actually bring about that success.
That’s a lot better than basing your success on having confidence in the ultimate rise in the markets (upon which your confidence has virtually zero causal impact.)
But it’s hard to have confidence, before you’ve actually garnered the results you want in life. As we’ve seen, before you’ve “made it” (however you define that) confidence in yourself is a “contrarian” investment.
There are two basic responses to this.
The first is what I call “inflated confidence”.
This is the “rah rah” method of motivational seminars and weekend “transformational” workshops.
It generally works…. For a weekend!
And then the effect fades. The bouncy ball of your confidence that was inflated in the seminar, begins its sad deflation.
Until the you jump on your seats and pump your fists into the air in the next expensive motivational weekend. And then that deflates too.
But there’s another way to develop confidence in yourself as a contrarian investment.
And that’s what I called “grounded confidence.”
Stay tuned for my next post in this series, in which I explain exactly what it is, and how you can develop it systematically, starting now.
